12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Sunday, January 4. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
Discussion
Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL.
Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally peak during the afternoon to early evening.
Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south. Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent.