12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday, August 28. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX
SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical wind shear.
Southern High Plains into the Arklatex
An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height, will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities.