12AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, August 26. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday.
Synopsis
An expansive upper-level trough will be present across the eastern CONUS today. At the surface, a cool, dry airmass and high pressure will dominate most of the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. Widespread monsoonal thunderstorm activity will occur across much of the western CONUS.
Southern Arizona
Weak instability is forecast across southern Arizona with sufficient heating for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow around 20 knots Tuesday morning will weaken slightly by the afternoon. This belt of enhanced flow may provide enough shear for a stronger multicell thunderstorm with an isolated damaging wind threat. However, overall, expect storm organization to be limited with mostly sub-severe convection due to weaker instability and shear than Monday.
Given the number of storms across the western CONUS today, isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible. However, a more organized region/threat is not apparent.