U.S. Drought Monitor discussion for Wednesday, December 31.
This week, a massive heat dome settled over the central and southern United States, creating unprecedented warmth for the holiday week. This high-pressure system shattered daily high-temperature records, with readings soaring 15 to 35 degrees above average across the region. Numerous daily records were broken between December 24 and December 27, contributing to what was forecast to be the warmest Christmas Day on record for the contiguous U.S. The weather pattern snapped violently late in the weekend as a powerful winter cyclone swept eastward from the Plains between December 27 and 29. This system drove a sharp cold front through the South, causing temperatures to plummet from record highs to near freezing overnight. Simultaneously, the storm unleashed severe winter conditions across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, delivering blizzard conditions and up to two feet of snow near Lake Superior, alongside significant ice accumulations that snarled travel in parts of the Northeast. Precipitation was near- to below-normal for much of the country, while much of the West, and parts of the Midwest and Northeast observed above-normal precipitation during this week. The West Coast was a notable exception where a strong atmospheric river brought heavy precipitation to most of California, dumping over 10 inches of rain in some areas and several feet of new snow in the mountains.
During the next five days (December 30, 2025–January 3, 2026), a highly amplified pattern will create a sharp divide across the Continental U.S. An upper-level ridge situated over the West Coast will keep conditions initially quieter there, while a broad trough east of the Mississippi River will usher in cold air and active winter weather to the eastern states. A strong low-pressure system exiting the Northeast will leave behind blustery conditions and significant lake-effect snow, particularly downwind of the Great Lakes where accumulations of 1-2 feet are possible in Upstate New York. As the week progresses, a reinforcing cold front will sweep through the East on Thursday, maintaining the chill and snow chances, while the western ridge will begin to move inland. This split flow will result in a notable temperature dichotomy across the country. Below-average temperatures will grip the region from the Northern Plains to the East Coast, with the coldest conditions centered on the Upper Midwest where highs in the single digits and subzero overnight lows are expected. Dangerous wind chills may affect the central Gulf Coast and Southeast early in the period. Conversely, much of the West and High Plains will experience above-average warmth. By Thursday and Friday, the weather pattern will shift in the West as Pacific systems move in, bringing rain and mountain snow back to the coast, with potential heavy precipitation in Southern California and snow in the Sierra Nevada.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid January 4–8, 2026) favors above-normal precipitation across Hawaii, the Pacific Coast and parts of the interior West, Alaska, and in parts of northern Plains and New England. Below-normal precipitation is favored from the central and southern Plains into portions of the Ohio Valley. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are increased across most of the U.S., including most of Hawaii, while below-normal temperatures are favored across most of Alaska and much of the Northeast.
High Plains region.
Warmer-than-average temperatures dominated the High Plains this week, with departures ranging up to +25 degrees F above normal, while near- to below-normal temperatures were observed along northern portions of the region. Precipitation varied across the region, with most areas reporting near- to below-normal totals. Western Wyoming was the exception, where weekly precipitation totals were 200% to 600% of normal. Consequently, severe drought (D2) was removed from western Wyoming, while moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) improved. Conditions were drier on the east side of the state, justifying the expansion of abnormal dryness in those areas. The majority of the southern half of the High Plains observed temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal for the week, while precipitation totals were reported to be 25% or less of normal. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in central Colorado, while moderate drought (D1) expanded in southern Colorado, across northern portions of Nebraska, and in southeast Kansas. Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded across northeast Colorado, southern and northern portions of Nebraska, and in southeast Kansas.
Midwest region.
Above-normal temperatures, with departures ranging from +5 to +25 degrees F, were observed across most of the Midwest this week. The largest temperature departures (+25 degrees F) were observed in southern Missouri and in a small pocket of southwest Kentucky. Precipitation was reported across most of the region, with half an inch or more falling across the northern half and the greatest amounts (2 to 3 inches) falling in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. This above-normal precipitation led to improvements in extreme drought (D3) in northwest Ohio and eastern Indiana, while severe drought (D2) coverage was reduced in central Illinois, central Indiana, and northwest Ohio. Moderate drought (D1) also improved in parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. Abnormal dryness (D0) saw improvements in central Minnesota, southwest Michigan, and parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Conversely, precipitation was below normal across the southern part of the region, with rainfall totals as low as 10% of normal for the week. Growing precipitation deficits and degrading conditions—indicated by short-term indicators, streamflow, and soil moisture data—resulted in the addition of severe drought (D2) in southeast Missouri and the expansion of moderate drought (D1) in Missouri and southern Illinois. Abnormal dryness (D0) also expanded in southwest Indiana and western Kentucky.
Northeast region.
Precipitation fell across much of the Northeast this week, though rainfall amounts varied across the region. Heavier amounts (>1.5 inches) were observed across much of New York and in parts of Maine, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, with the greatest weekly rainfall totals (2 to 3 inches) recorded in portions of central and western New York. This above-average rainfall allowed for the reduction of severe drought (D2) in Maine and reduced moderate drought (D1) coverage in New York and West Virginia. Abnormal dryness (D0) also improved in parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Conversely, below-normal precipitation resulted in the expansion of moderate drought in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Delaware. Abnormal dryness was expanded in West Virginia and into Rhode Island this week. Average temperatures varied significantly across the region, with below-normal temperatures in the north and above-normal temperatures in the south. During the week, temperature departures ranged from -15 degrees F in parts of Maine to +20 degrees F in southern portions of West Virginia.
South region.
Below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures dominated the South this week, resulting in widespread drought degradation across the region. Temperatures were above normal for the entire region, with departures ranging from +5 degrees F to +25 degrees F. Dry conditions also persisted, with monthly rainfall totals ranging from 1 to 5 inches below normal (5% to 25% of normal) for December. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in central Texas, while severe drought (D2) was introduced or expanded in southeast Oklahoma, southeast Texas, west-central Louisiana, eastern Tennessee, parts of central Texas, and northeast Arkansas. Moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) expanded across much of the region.
Southeast region.
Temperatures were near to above normal across the entire region this week. The largest temperature departures (+18 degrees F) were observed in parts of Georgia and Alabama, while near-normal temperatures were reported along parts of the Virginia and North Carolina coasts and parts of the Florida Peninsula. Rainfall was mostly below normal across the region this week, with much of the region reporting little to no precipitation. Portions of the Southeast were two inches below normal, with most of the region reporting 10% or less of normal precipitation for the week. This combination of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures—alongside worsening conditions shown in short-term SPI/SPEI, streamflow, and soil moisture data—supported the degradation of moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) and abnormal dryness (D0) in the region. Severe drought (D2) expanded in Alabama, Florida, and southern Georgia, and was introduced in northern Georgia. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, and Alabama, while abnormal dryness (D0) expanded into parts of Alabama and South Carolina. Conversely, wetter conditions were observed along portions of northwest Virginia, resulting in small improvements to moderate drought and abnormal dryness in this area.
West region.
Temperatures were above normal across much of the West this week, while below-normal temperatures were observed along parts of the West Coast and in northern Montana. For the week, temperature departures ranged from -10 degrees F below normal in northern Montana to +25 degrees F above normal in parts of Nevada and Utah. Precipitation varied across the region, with beneficial amounts falling across much of the southwest and parts of the north. Over the past 14 days, much of the West has received 2 to 20+ inches of precipitation, with departures ranging from +1 to +8 inches above normal (150% to 800% of normal). This above-normal precipitation justified the removal of extreme drought (D3) from the Washington-Idaho-Oregon border and reduced severe drought (D2) coverage in northern Montana. Moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) conditions improved in portions of Washington, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and southern Arizona, while moderate drought (D1) was removed in western Washington and improved in north-central Oregon and central Arizona. Abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from southern California and improved across northern portions of the region. Conversely, conditions were drier than normal across interior and eastern portions of the region. Lack of precipitation and growing deficits resulted in the expansion of severe drought (D2) in western Utah, while moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in central Nevada this week.