11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, January 15. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
South Florida
Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the northern Gulf basin late this evening. As this feature digs toward the FL Peninsula, strong cold front will surge to near the southern tip of the Peninsula by 18z, then across the straights by late afternoon. Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection across the eastern Gulf basin, but minimal lighting has been noted with this activity. HREF guidance suggests scattered convection will develop along the boundary as it surges southeast, but forecast instability is not particularly noteworthy, and lapse rates will remain poor. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for thunderstorms continues. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out, most updrafts will remain too weak/shallow to justify a 10 percent probability of thunder during the day1 period.