11PM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday, January 15. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
South Florida
Pronounced upper trough will dominate the eastern CONUS during the upcoming day2 period. Latest model guidance suggests a strong surface front will have advanced across all but the southern most part of the FL Peninsula by 15/12z, then quickly surge offshore around 18z. At this time it appears the prospect for deep convection, capable of generating lightning, will be minimal as poor lapse rates and westerly flow ahead of the front do not look favorable for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict weakly buoyant profiles that rapidly stabilize by mid morning across the southern Peninsula. Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent.