10AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, March 2. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.
Synopsis
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe risk with this activity.
Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today.