6PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, March 1. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
01z Update
Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably. Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore, especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few hours.
00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this evening.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support.