10AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Monday, January 12. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
Synopsis
A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates, but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential.
An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection.