1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Sunday, March 1. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.
Synopsis
The mean northwesterly flow regime currently over the CONUS will gradually begin to shift east through the late weekend and into early next week as a somewhat more potent upper-level wave approaches the West Coast. Cooling temperatures aloft associated with the approaching upper wave will support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across CA and into OR, NV, and parts of southwest ID late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Further east, strengthening mid-level flow across the central Rockies will promote weak lee cyclogenesis in proximity to a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Plains. An uptick in low-level winds will augment isentropic upglide over the frontal zone across OK into eastern KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR. Strong mid-level winds atop strong veering in the lowest few kilometers will conditionally support organized convection; however, most guidance suggests buoyancy profiles will remain fairly limited (less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE per GEFS/ECENS output) due to meager moisture quality. This limits confidence in any severe threat at this time. Isolated thunderstorms may linger across southern FL where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in place as a weak frontal boundary drifts south.