11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 27. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Synopsis
A diffuse cold front analyzed in mid-morning surface observations across the southern Appalachians and mid-MS River Valley is expected to push southeast over the next 24 hours in a tandem with an upper-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Friday morning along the front from southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, but some abatement through the early-morning diurnal buoyancy minimum is anticipated. Re-intensification of lingering convection and/or development of additional thunderstorms is expected along the FL Peninsula through the afternoon hours as modest heating yields SBCAPE values around 500 J/kg to perhaps 1000 J/kg across southern FL. Broad-scale ascent associated with the passing upper wave will persist through the overnight hours; however, low-level convergence will steadily diminish along the stalling, frontolytic frontal zone, favoring mainly isolated to periodically scattered thunderstorms. An unfavorable displacement of the greater buoyancy across central/southern FL with the stronger mid-level flow further north will limit the potential for organized/severe convection.