11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday, February 26. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
Discussion
An expansive area of northwest flow aloft will extend from the Rockies to the East Coast on Thursday. High Pressure will be in place from the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the Northeast, with a cold front slowly pushing south into the Gulf Coast states. A leading wave will affect the Appalachians into the Northeast during the day, with a secondary wave moving into the southern Plains late.
During the afternoon, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will exist ahead of this front, from eastern TX across LA, MS, AL, and into GA. Daytime heating will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting in maximum CAPE values into the 500-750 J/kg range.
While mid and high level winds will be strong with 50+ kt effective shear, winds in the low levels and convergence will be weak. Widespread rain will be likely from northern AL and GA into the Carolinas north of the boundary where a few hundred J/kg elevated CAPE will be present. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out with this activity. Given conditionally favorable shear, cooler temperatures aloft and influence of the upper wave, large hail could occur should stronger-than-forecast instability develop near/north of the boundary.
To the south, isolated widely-scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across MS/AL/GA near the front and perhaps across the warm sector at peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate areas of subsidence aloft as winds veer to westerly behind the lead wave. Given these factors, these storms are expected to be non-severe.