11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Sunday, January 11. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.
Synopsis
A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night. The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.
An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic through the day. In association with these features, shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands.