1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Thursday, February 26. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a couple of strong wind gusts.
Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary will drift southward across the TN Valley into the Southeast on Thursday as a low-amplitude, positively tilted mid-level trough overspreads the MS Valley. Cooler temperatures aloft will gradually overspread the warm sector through the day over the Southeast, characterized by modest low-level moisture. Tall, thin buoyancy profiles in forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE should remain at or below 500 J/kg in most places. Low-level WAA atop the southward sagging surface frontal boundary should serve as the impetus for isolated instances of convective initiation by Thursday evening. Strong westerly flow aloft will yield straight, elongated hodographs, so a couple of strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the more organized storms. However, modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent suggest that any severe threat that materializes, while technically non-zero, will be too sparse for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.