10AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, February 25. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee Valley.
Synopsis
Broad mid-level troughing will characterize the upper air pattern over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), with multiple embedded mid-level impulses poised to traverse the mid-level troughing regime. A surface low will meander over TX through the period, resulting in gradual modest low-level moisture return from the Gulf to the mid-MS Valley region. During the 00-12Z (late Wednesday into early Thursday morning) time frame, a mid-level impulse will traverse a broad zonal surface baroclinic zone, serving as a local lifting source for deep-moist convection. Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread a marginally moist low-level airmass, resulting in scant buoyancy and an associated chance for a few lightning flashes. Buoyancy will be locally higher over the Mid-MS Valley overnight as low-level moisture return (albeit modest) will be maximized. A couple of thunderstorms may develop within this warm-air advection regime as well.