1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, February 25. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the Tennessee Valley.
Synopsis and Discussion
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly from the Pacific Northwest in the central Plains/Mid MO Valley on Wednesday, moving within the broadly cyclonic upper flow expected to be in place across the CONUS. Deepening surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with cyclogenesis eventually yielding a low that progresses across the TX Panhandle during the evening and along the Red River overnight.
A moistening warm sector will precede this surface low and its parent shortwave, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching across much of eastern OK and southern/central AR by early Thursday morning. 60s dewpoints will likely remain confined farther south along the TX Coast, with warm temperatures aloft precluding deep convection throughout the warm sector. However, strengthening low to mid-level flow is anticipated throughout the warm sector, resulting in moderate to strong warm-air advection across the frontal zone extending northeastward from the Red River surface low. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South and TN Valley as limited but sufficient buoyancy develops amid the moistening low to mid-levels and cool temperatures aloft. A few thunderstorms are also possible immediately ahead of a weak triple point low farther west in the vicinity of the confluence of the MS and OH rivers.