10AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, February 24. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.
Synopsis and Discussion
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to extend across the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday. Several shortwave troughs are expected to move within the this northwesterly flow, including one forecast to move across the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and adjacent northwestern Ontario.
A deepening lee trough, and likely lee low development, will help tighten the surface pressure gradient across the Plains. Resulting southerly flow across the Southern Plains will encourage some modest low-level moisture return is anticipated late Tuesday through Wednesday morning across the TX Gulf Coast. However, the previously mentioned shortwave is expected to remain displaced well north of this low-level moisture and any associated buoyancy, precluding thunderstorm developing across the CONUS.
A shortwave trough will also move into the Pacific Northwest early Wednesday morning. Cool and moist profiles are expected to be in place Tuesday morning, with some mid-level drying anticipated across the region throughout the day ahead of this wave. Some additional cooling/moistening is possible along the WA coast early morning as the wave moves through. However, stable conditions will prevail throughout the period, with no lightning anticipated.