12PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, February 24. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a deepening surface low and trailing cold front. While this system may be accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential.
Upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of the Pacific Northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will initially be in place over the region. Rain and gusty winds will accompany this system across coastal OR and northern CA, but thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability.