1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 22. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Discussion
Mid-level flow will amplify Sunday as a trough deepens over the far Southeastern US states and Atlantic Coast. An associated surface low will move off the NC coast and deepen rapidly. This will drive a cold front southward across the FL Peninsula early Sunday morning. Modest moisture advection ahead of the front could support a few thunderstorms through midday Sunday. Additional storms are possible along the sea breeze in south FL. However, drying/warming mid-levels and large-scale subsidence south of the deepening trough should temper the overall convective intensity such that no severe weather is expected.
Elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the surface low rapidly deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low.
Additionally, very isolated lightning is possible off the Pacific Coast of WA and northern OR. Strong ascent and some moisture advection increase with the next upper-trough. However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for delineation.