1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 21. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS
SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
Gulf Coast and Carolinas
A stalled frontal zone across parts of the Southeast will begin to move southeastward as an initial shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley and Southeast amplifies. Aided by additional troughing upstream over the central and northern Plains, flow aloft will intensify and turn northwesterly helping to deepen a surface cyclone along the frontal zone over GA and SC. The increased mid-level ascent and strengthening frontal forcing will move eastward into parts of the Gulf Coast and southern Carolinas Saturday afternoon. With dewpoints in the mid 60s F, some destabilization is expected with daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rate suggest buoyancy will be relatively modest, but sufficient for scattered storm development across central AL/GA and the southern Carolinas.
Ongoing elevated storms early Saturday morning should persist and move southeastward with additional development expected ahead of the front through the afternoon. Strong mostly unidirectional westerly flow will likely support some organization into bands or clusters. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though hail and a brief tornado are possible given the moist surface conditions and supercell shear profiles. Convection should gradually weaken as the front approaches the coast later Saturday evening and large-scale ascent lifts away to the northeast.