1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Saturday, January 10. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia
Within a swath of broad/strong midlevel southwesterly flow across the eastern half of the CONUS, a robust midlevel jet will advance northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast -- while phasing with an upstream trough and related midlevel jet. An accompanying frontal wave/weak surface cyclone -- initially over the TN Valley -- will track northeastward along a remnant frontal zone toward the Northeast in tandem with the midlevel jet.
At the start of the period, broken bands of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast, along/east of the frontal zone/surface wave. While buoyancy will be somewhat limited (especially with northward extent toward northern AL), ample boundary-layer moisture and a focused low-level jet will continue to promote a few strong to severe storms, with a risk of damaging gusts and a tornado. While uncertain, there appears to be a corridor of relatively higher severe potential from parts of south-central AL into GA, and this area continues to be monitored for a potential upgrade.
Thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward through the day, as the midlevel jet and surface wave track northeastward. Buoyancy will become limited with northward extent, though the northeastward-moving low-level jet and strong deep-layer shear will continue to yield a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado with any stronger storms that spread into the Carolinas and southern VA.