12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Monday, December 1. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow (Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will intensify while traversing the central CONUS tomorrow (Monday), resulting in surface low development along the Gulf Coast late in the period. As this occurs, a broad warm-air advection regime will become established across the Southeast, resulting in mainly elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) ushering inland. A broad shield of rain with embedded thunderstorms should become established across the Sabine River Valley into MS by 00Z, progressing eastward toward the eastern Gulf Coast by 12Z Tuesday morning. Most guidance indicates the warm front and associated surface-based buoyancy remaining just offshore, along with the anticipated surface low. However, some guidance (e.g. the 00Z NAM) hints at some surface based buoyancy reaching the shoreline in the 00-12Z period. Should this occur, a sparse severe threat cannot be ruled out. However, given that the guidance consensus strays from this scenario, severe probabilities have not been introduced at this time.