12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Saturday, January 10. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet. However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which should keep any severe threat marginal.