10AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 15. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.
Southeast
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and southwest GA.
This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.
With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests additional strong convection may develop across these areas in closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.
Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.