12AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, September 1. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
The severe potential appears relatively low today across the continental U.S., though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of the Great Plains.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, a ridge will be in place across the western U.S., with northwesterly flow located from the Rockies eastward to the Appalachians. A north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will present in the Great Plains, where warming surface heating will contribute to scattered convective initiation. Throughout this airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s with weak instability developing by afternoon. Minimal deep-layer shear, poor lapse rates and a lack of large-scale ascent will limit the severe weather potential. Further west into the Pacific Northwest, a mid-level low will remain offshore from the Washington Coast. An axis of instability will develop across western Washington during the day. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, but the environment should be insufficient for severe storms. Elsewhere across the continental United States, no severe threat is expected.