2AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 2. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday.
Synopsis
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.