11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 8. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Discussion
Mid-level ridging will deamplify across the western CONUS on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of the surface cold front/surface low, cooling temperatures aloft will lead to weak convective destabilization. A few lightning flashes are possible late Sunday evening into early Sunday morning across western Oregon and southwest Washington.
Beneath this ridge, an upper-low will move east across northern Mexico. Some of the cold air aloft on the northern periphery of this surface low may overspread southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico with some weak instability developing. Scattered to widespread storms are likely across much of northern Mexico. A few of these storms may spread into southern Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
East of the Rockies, a dry airmass and high pressure will keep conditions stable and limit thunderstorm activity.