11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, January 7. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning from west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.
Southern Plains
A low-latitude shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest through the day, reaching the southern High Plains late in the period. Related lee cyclogenesis will favor a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet and the northward return of weakly modified Gulf moisture into a cool/statically stable boundary layer over the southern Plains overnight. This, combined with modestly steepened midlevel lapse rates preceding the trough, will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE across the developing warm sector.
A band of warm-advection-driven showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will develop from west-central TX into OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Despite limited buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear may promote a couple loosely organized cells and small line segments, though most of this activity is expected to remain slightly elevated. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with the more organized storms that evolve.
Pacific Northwest
In the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet impinging on the Pacific Northwest Coast, a strongly forced, low-topped convective band is expected along a cold front overspreading the region. While locally strong gusts will be possible, the combination of weak buoyancy and lack of stronger low-level flow limits confidence in severe-gust potential.