1PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 6. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Southern CA
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon and early evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA.
Synopsis
Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today, ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low- to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA.
Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.