1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 8. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Discussion
A large ridge across the western CONUS will suppress through the period on Sunday as a jet streak extends from the Pacific into the northern Rockies. Cooling air aloft across the Pacific Northwest may lead to sufficiently deep instability for some lightning. At this time, expect most of the lightning to remain offshore. Therefore, no thunder area has been added to the coastal areas at this time.
Beneath the larger ridge, an upper low will move slowly east across northern Mexico. Surface heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will result in modest instability across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico. Forcing will remain relatively weak, but the uncapped environment, combined with some terrain influences may lead to isolated thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon.