11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 7. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico on Saturday morning/early afternoon.
Discussion
An amplifying mid-level trough across the eastern CONUS will bring reinforcing dry/polar air and surface high pressure to most of the eastern CONUS. Most of the western 2/3rds of the CONUS will experience mid-level ridging which will keep weather conditions benign. The only exceptions will be the Pacific Northwest and a weak trough across northern New Mexico. Ahead of this trough, across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, some weak instability may develop beneath some mid-upper-level diffluence. Storm coverage will likely remain isolated, but forecast soundings support some potential for lightning from late morning through early afternoon across this region.