12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Sunday, August 31. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday).
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly mid-level flow regime will become established across the central U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook.