12PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 7. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.
AZ/NM
A positive-tilt shortwave trough/mid-level low west of northern Baja CA should drift east-southeast, approaching the peninsula through Saturday night. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture should spread into parts of eastern AZ and NM. However, this will likely be accompanied by weak mid-level lapse rates, inhibiting elevated MUCAPE. Marginal boundary-layer moisture might yield scant buoyancy into southeast AZ by peak heating Saturday. But with limited large-scale ascent, thunderstorm potential seems negligible.