10AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, February 5. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Synopsis
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.