1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, January 7. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.
Southern Plains/Ozarks
An upper low currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to progress eastward into the southern Plains by late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Gradual low-level moistening will occur through the day across TX and into OK as low-level flow strengthens in response to steady cyclogenesis across the Plains. Additionally, ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave will promote adequate destabilization for MUCAPE values of around 500 J/kg between 06-12 UTC across northern TX into OK and the Ozarks. While buoyancy profiles will most likely remain too limited for substantially deep convection, strengthening wind profiles may support transient organized storms overnight across northern TX into parts of OK. Confidence remains too limited at this time to introduce risk probabilities, but highlights may be needed if new guidance trends towards the more aggressive extended-range RRFS solutions.
WA/OR Coast
Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with an approaching upper trough will once again support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms off and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest through the day Wednesday. Lifted indices on the order of -1 to -2 C suggest that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too limited for strong convection and any appreciable severe threat.