12PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 6. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential generally appears low on Friday and Friday night.
Southwest
Multiple minor shortwave impulses should gradually evolve within a broad, low-amplitude trough shifting inland from the West Coast. Moisture for lightning-producing appears rather limited inland of coastal southern CA, yielding insufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm probabilities at or above 10 percent over the Mojave Desert and Lower CO Valley. Still, most 12Z guidance indicates late-day convective potential over the western Transverse Ranges. Scant buoyancy amid 500-mb temperatures near -22 C, along with orographically augmented weak ascent, might foster a couple thunderstorms.