10AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, February 4. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Discussion
A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated Wednesday with a longwave trough over the East and an anticyclone/ridge in the West. A positive-tilt shortwave impulse digging through the basal portion of the trough will yield weak cyclogenesis over the Southeast. A surface cold front will trail southwestward from this cyclone into the northwest Gulf on Wednesday morning. A combination of 50s boundary-layer dew points and weak mid-level lapse rates should support only scant surface to slightly elevated buoyancy near the front. Low thunder probabilities are apparent during the morning to afternoon, along a portion of the Gulf Coast from far southeast LA to the FL Panhandle. The paucity of instability and modest lower-level shear should minimize severe-storm potential.