2AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Friday, October 24. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the southern Plains Friday and Friday night.
Southern Plains
The upper trough over the Southwest will continue eastward becoming increasingly positively tilted and weakening with time. Stronger flow aloft will become more meridional across parts of eastern NM, west TX and extending into south-central OK. Southerly low-level flow will continue to transport sufficient moisture northward across much of the southern Plains ahead of a weak lee low and Pacific front.
Numerous elevated storms are likely to be ongoing early Friday across the eastern TX Panhandle and parts of central OK. Continued low-level warm air advection should reinforce an east-west oriented effective boundary south of this activity expected to be in place across the Red River Valley vicinity. South of this feature, at least modest heating and destabilization is possible within the plume of rich low-level moisture from west TX into southwest OK. Ascent from the approaching trough should result in scattered thunderstorm development east of the lee trough/Pacific front by early afternoon. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will support sufficient vertical shear for isolated organized storms, including some supercells or clusters. Steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the upper trough could support some hail and damaging wind potential with the strongest storms.
The severe threat should gradually shift east/northeast into the into the evening and first part of the overnight hours. Buoyancy is expected to be less robust with east/northeast extent. Still, a nocturnal low-level jet and consolidation of thunderstorms into one or more clusters may support isolated severe potential across southern OK and north TX overnight into early Saturday.