12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday, October 23. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible beginning late afternoon Thursday across parts of the Southwest and continuing into Thursday night over the southern Great Plains.
Southern CO/eastern NM and west TX
A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley and Southwest is forecast to move eastward reaching the southern Rockies and High Plains by early Friday. Ahead of the trough, weak height falls and enhanced westerly flow aloft will support modest lee cyclogenesis across southern CO and eastern NM. Southerly low-level upslope flow will transport modest moisture northward across the region allowing for weak destabilization Thursday afternoon and evening.
As ascent moves over the moistening air mass, scattered thunderstorms are expected along a Pacific Front from the Four Corners across north-central NM by mid afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for a few supercells capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind beneath the cold core of the upper trough. Farther south, where moisture content will be significantly less, weak buoyancy atop dry low-levels may support isolated severe gusts with any convection able to develop.
TX Panhandle into central OK
Southerly low-level flow ahead of the upper trough will advance a warm front northward across the Red River toward the OK/KS border through much of the day. An initially stubborn wedge of colder air over the northern TX Panhandle and southwest KS, will slowly recede allowing a plume of richer moisture to surge northward late in the day as low-level isentropic ascent increases. Height falls from the trough overspreading the area will support a 35-40 kt low-level jet, increasing ascent across the eastern TX Panhandle into OK by early evening and overnight. Cooling mid-level temperatures should allow for elevated destabilization concurrent with increasing westerly flow aloft. Numerous storms are likely, complicating the convective mode, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and elongating hodographs may support some organized supercells/multicells with hail potential overnight.