2AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Thursday, October 23. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds are possible Thursday and Thursday Night across portions of the southern Plains.
Southern Plains
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will move from the Southwest over the southern Rockies helping to deepen an elongated lee low over the adjacent High Plains Thursday and Thursday night. As the surface low matures, southeasterly low-level flow will intensify, drawing a warm front northward from west-central TX toward the KS/OK border. Modest moisture return is expected with the front and to the east of trailing lee trough/Pacific front over eastern NM and west TX. Moisture depth is likely to be shallow in the wake the frontal passage earlier this week. Still, advection of colder temperatures aloft in conjunction with at least some moistening of the boundary layer amid diurnal heating should allow for destabilization of the air mass (SBCAPE ~ 1000 J/kg) late Thursday into early Friday.
While buoyancy may be somewhat marginal and remains dependent on the degree of return moisture, isolated storms could develop along the lee trough from far eastern NM into the TX Panhandle Thursday afternoon and early evening. Increasingly strong veering wind profiles would favor some storm organization into supercells or multicell clusters. Hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any strong to severe storms able to persist.
Overnight, mid-level height falls are forecast to continue spreading eastward, aiding in the development of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. Strong isentropic ascent should result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms along and north of the lifting warm frontal zone from central OK into southern KS. Modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear could support isolated severe storms with hail as the primary risk overnight.