12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, October 22. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday.
New England
An upper low centered over the Great Lakes, with accompanying cyclonic flow aloft, will remain the primary synoptic feature across the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday. Strong ascent and cool mid-level temperatures east of a bent-back cold front over New England will support scattered low-topped thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. The strongest of these storms are expected to remain offshore, though some may approach coastal New England and Down East ME midday. While isolated gusty winds are possible given strong mid-level flow, severe storms appear unlikely with very limited buoyancy and poor low-level lapse rates further inland.
Southwest
Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible within a plume of mid-level moisture ahead of the western trough moving onshore over CA and into the Southwest late Wednesday into early Thursday. Ascent will overspread the modestly moist air mass from eastern CA and southern NV into parts of the Four Corners. With only weak buoyancy likely to develop ahead of the upper trough, organized severe storms appear unlikely, though a stray strong gust is possible.
..Elsewhere
Subsidence in the wake of the Northeast US system will strengthen surface high pressure behind a cold front moving southeastward across the US. Dry and stable conditions are expected within the post-frontal air mass across the central US, with little threat for thunderstorms. The exception being across far south FL, where isolated storms are possible Wednesday afternoon along the coasts.