12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Saturday, August 30. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday).
Synopsis
Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances.
High Plains into the southern and central Plains
Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.