12AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, October 15. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible today across parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains this evening into the overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few marginally severe wind gusts may also occur.
Synopsis
A large western CONUS trough, seen on water vapor imagery across southern California early this morning, will shift slowly east through the period. A mid-level jet streak on the southern periphery of this trough will shift east across the central Rockies. This will result in strong lee troughing across eastern Colorado this evening and into tonight. As this lee cyclone deepens, a warm front will sharpen across the central Plains.
Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains
As the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado today, low-level flow will strengthen. As this occurs, low-level southerly flow will result in moistening conditions across New Mexico and into Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South Dakota. 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast across much of this region (perhaps somewhat delayed across northern New Mexico where morning cloudcover may be present. While instability will be mostly weak, strong effective shear (45 to 50 knots per RAP forecast soundings) will support storm organization (including the potential for supercells) with any stronger updrafts which develop. Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and the aforementioned thermodynamic and kinematic factors will support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level turning across portions of northern New Mexico which may support an isolated tornado threat.