12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday, October 16. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the central High Plains.
Central High Plains
A mid-level low will move into the northern High Plains on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the central U.S. At the surface, a low will deepen ahead of a cold front moving southeastward across eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop from eastern New Mexico into far eastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas. By mid afternoon on Thursday, MLCAPE is expected to reach near 1000 J/kg along this axis, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 8 C/km Range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to around 50 knots. This should support a potential for isolated large hail with relatively high-based rotating storms. The threat is expected to diminish in the evening as the cold front undercuts most of the convection.