2AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, October 14. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from mid afternoon into early evening across parts of New Mexico.
New Mexico
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S., as a low moves eastward into the Intermountain West. Between these two features, southwest flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest northeastward into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains westward into the southern Rockies, where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. As surface heating takes place on Tuesday, an axis of instability will develop over central New Mexico by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain by early afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms moving northeastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. According to forecast soundings, MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the instability axis, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 7.5 C/km. This could support a threat for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail could also occur in the stronger thunderstorm cores.