12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Monday, October 13. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday across parts of far west Texas and southern New Mexico.
Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico
A mid-level low will move southward adjacent to the immediate West Coast on Monday, as southwesterly flow remains established from the southwestern U.S. into the north-central states. At the surface, a moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 50s to near 60 F will be in place from southern Arizona eastward into southern New Mexico and far West Texas. As surface temperatures warm, an axis of instability is forecast to develop from far west Texas northward into southern New Mexico. Thunderstorms that develop near this axis of instability may obtain a marginal severe threat during the mid to late afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated severe wind gusts. Hail could also occur within the stronger cores.