2AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Sunday, October 12. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
An appreciable severe threat is not expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the U.S.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front are forecast to move through the north-central U.S. on Sunday. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along and ahead of the front from the upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward into the central Plains. Instability is expected to be very weak ahead of the front, which should limit the severe potential. Additional thunderstorms could form over parts of the Desert Southwest Sunday afternoon. These storms should form within a weakly unstable airmass, and are not expected to reach severe limits. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not forecast to develop over the continental U.S Sunday and Sunday night.