12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, January 6. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Discussion
Conditions may remain too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. A couple areas of very limited potential remain evident. One across the southern Great Lakes where minimal elevated buoyancy might support a brief thunderstorm on Tuesday morning within a mixed-phase precipitation swath attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. Another area will be over northwest WA where scant buoyancy may develop towards 12Z Wednesday. Large-scale ascent with an upstream shortwave trough should strengthen mainly later Wednesday morning, suggesting that thunder probabilities for D2 appear to be below 10 percent.