1AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Saturday, October 11. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
An upper ridge over the Plains will become suppressed on Saturday as a large-scale upper trough over the West develops east through the period. Modest boundary-layer moisture from the Southwest into the northern High Plains will support modest instability. With increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow and forcing for ascent with the ejecting upper trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Poor lapse rates and limited instability will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Lower MI into OH beneath the core of an upper cyclone drifting south toward the Ohio Valley. Instability will be meager, but cold temperatures aloft and modest lapse rates should be sufficient from isolated lightning with low-topped convection.
A mid/upper trough will also develop eastward across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. While a cold front will have moved offshore prior to Saturday, sufficient moisture will be in place on the back side of a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas to support modest instability. Any stronger instability, and more robust convection will likely remain offshore, and severe storms are not expected.