12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Friday, October 10. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Synopsis
An upper trough just offshore from the Pacific Coast will move inland on Friday. Meanwhile, the NHC has Tropical Storm Priscilla weakening as it approaches Baja by early Saturday. Moisture associated with Priscilla will stream northward across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin. As the Pacific trough moves eastward coincident with increasing moisture, isolated thunderstorms will be possible from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. While enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will be in place, weak instability will limit severe potential.
Further east, a shortwave upper trough over the Upper Midwest will develop southeast across Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley. A surface cold front will develop southeast across the Upper/Mid-MS Valley in tandem with the shortwave trough. Modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front will support weak destabilization sufficient for isolated thunderstorms.
Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula and northward near/just offshore the coastal Carolinas within a moist and weakly unstable airmass. Poor lapse rates will limit instability and severe storms are not expected.