1AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, January 6. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Discussion
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. A trio of exceptions are apparent where thunderstorm probabilities appear to be nonzero, but below 10 percent. Within a fast zonal flow regime over the Northwest, a lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress along the WA/BC border towards the northern Rockies on Tuesday night. Colder mid-level temperatures in the wake of this impulse combined with persistent onshore low-level flow might yield a brief thunderstorm overnight along the WA coast. Farther south, a closed upper low off the southern CA coast should continue to drift south and remain west of Baja CA. Much of the guidance is insistent that instability will remain too minimal to warrant a thunderstorm risk along the far southern CA coast through 12Z Wednesday. Finally, flimsy elevated buoyancy could develop in vicinity of a progressive shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A brief thunderstorm or two could occur within an emerging mixed-phase precipitation swath.