7AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, August 28. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX
SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated hail and severe wind threat, are possible across parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Arklatex this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Colorado and the adjacent High Plains.
Southern Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex
Showers/thunderstorms are prevalent this morning across northern/eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks to the north-northeast of a warm front. Within a belt of moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft, a shortwave trough will continue to dig southeastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks by this evening. Related dynamical response and the early day convection will shunt the front southward later today, with ample heating/moderate destabilization on the southwest flank of this boundary.
While mid-level temperatures are seasonally warm (-4C at 500 mb), and lapse rates are not that steep, severe hail and damaging wind gusts can be expected with the more robust convection as general intensification occurs by mid/late afternoon. A few initial supercells may occur, and some tornado risk could also exist with convection immediately along the boundary and east of the weak surface front. Clustering/upscale-quasi-linear growth should occur by early evening as storms progress southeastward and continue to pose a damaging wind risk for a time this evening.
Eastern Colorado and adjacent High Plains
The large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably as upper ridging will hold across the southern/central Rockies. While mid-level flow is not that strong across Colorado, low-level upslope flow is expected to contribute to scattered thunderstorm development as boundary layer heats later this afternoon. This activity will spread southeastward with an attendant risk for isolated severe hail and gusty winds.